With federal budget uncertainty now a chronic condition, agency technology leaders must shift from crisis response to proactive resilience. Government shutdowns and stop-gap funding measures introduce severe risks, including hidden costs, program delays, and security vulnerabilities. This brief outlines three critical insights into these risks and provides an actionable phased plan to mitigate their impact on mission-critical IT projects at the VA, DoD, and across the federal government.

Three Critical Insights

1. Shutdowns Create a "Delay Multiplier" Effect

A shutdown doesn't just pause work; it creates cascading delays and costs that extend long after funding is restored. Issuing stop-work orders requires a complex process of orderly shutdown, and restarting is even more difficult. Contractors can, under the FAR, bill for demobilization and remobilization, introducing unbudgeted costs. More critically, the loss of momentum, reassignment of personnel, and time spent on restart administration mean a one-week shutdown can easily cause three weeks of total project delay. This multiplier effect must be factored into risk planning for any major IT program.

2. Continuing Resolutions Block Critical Modernization

Continuing resolutions prevent agencies from starting new programs or increasing production rates without explicit authorization. In February 2024, Pentagon leadership warned that a full-year CR would prevent 156 new technology starts and 180 production rate increases. The Navy alone faced $26.6 billion in misaligned funds under a CR scenario. For specialized projects at the VA and DoD, such as electronic health record modernization or advanced cybersecurity platforms, CR-induced delays compromise mission readiness and create operational gaps that persist for years.

3. Funding Gaps Expose Critical Security Vulnerabilities

Continuous monitoring and compliance are not optional activities; they are core to a secure posture. During a shutdown, work on POA&Ms may halt and the process for renewing an Authority to Operate (ATO) can be disrupted. As the GAO has warned, these gaps in security operations create a prime opportunity for adversaries to exploit known vulnerabilities. For the DoD and VA, which manage vast amounts of sensitive national security and personal health information, even a brief lapse in security vigilance can lead to a significant breach, compromising the very mission the IT systems are designed to support.

Strategic Implications

For Federal CIOs and Program Managers, these insights demand a shift in strategic focus. The primary pain point is not just project delay, but the erosion of capability and trustworthiness. When a VA system for veteran benefits is delayed, the quantifiable value lost is measured in veteran satisfaction and access to care. When a DoD command-and-control system upgrade is paused, the value at risk is mission effectiveness and warfighter safety. The strategic priority must be to build resilience into the acquisition and management lifecycle. This means treating budget uncertainty as a standing operational condition, not an unexpected emergency.

Implementation Recommendations

Leaders can take concrete steps now to build this resilience through three waves of activity:

• Wave 1: Finalize a prioritized service catalog that formally designates all IT systems and associated personnel into tiers (Mission-Essential, Mission-Critical, Deferrable) to remove ambiguity during a shutdown.

• Wave 2: Engage contracting officers to proactively review key IT contracts and clarify terms related to orderly shutdowns and rapid restarts, ensuring cost structures are understood and agreed upon.

• Wave 3: Conduct a tabletop exercise that simulates a one-week funding lapse to stress-test communication plans, restart procedures, and decision-making chain of command.

Looking Ahead

Managing risk is critical, but we cannot lose sight of innovation. Tomorrow, we will explore Technological Advances, focusing on how agencies can accelerate their mission advantage and adopt powerful new tools like AI even in a fiscally constrained environment.

• Productivity vs. Capability: We're getting better at producing content, but are we getting worse at thinking?

• The Rise of Cognitive Debt: Like financial debt, offloading our thinking to AI offers short-term ease for long-term cognitive cost.

• The Solution is Cognitive Stewardship™: A framework for using AI to augment—not atrophy—our team's most valuable asset: their minds.

In this essential episode, we break down the three critical steps that separate successful IT projects from costly disasters. If you're a CIO, CTO, or project leader tired of watching budgets spiral out of control, this episode delivers the practical framework you need.